DETROIT, Mich. — The answer to Denver's decades-long doldrums can be found in the 2024 NFL Draft.
However, the solution is not dispensing future assets to trade up for the manager of a run-first program. Nor is it found in the beak of a former Oregon Duck who only quacks believe can turn into Drew Brees.
Michael Penix Jr. is the Broncos' savior. The only remaining question is if head coach Sean Payton and general manager George Paton have orchestrated the draft process to land the Washington slinger.
Penix's arm talent is second to only Caleb Williams, who is destined to be the No. 1 overall pick. His intangible leadership, forged through adversity, is second to nobody.
During his final two seasons at Washington, the quarterback threw for more than 9,500 yards (leading all of college football) and 67 touchdowns.
So why isn't this 6-foot-3, 214-pound QB garnering more interest at the top of the first round? Some will say "injury history," but I posit the truth lies deeper.
The fact that Penix's draft stock hasn't seen the same sort of meteoric rise a la Michigan's J.J. McCarthy proves that most NFL front offices subscribe to one modus operandi: fear.
Football cliche says the injury rate in the NFL is "100 percent," meaning at some point in a player's career, they are going to experience an injury. Unfortunately for Penix Jr., he was served a quadruple helping before even making it to the league.
Two ACL tears in the same knee, a separated shoulder and a fractured clavicle all ended seasons at Indiana prematurely. It nearly ended Penix Jr.'s football career before it ever really got off the ground.
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In an open letter to NFL general managers written in The Player's Tribune, Penix Jr. attributes his current strength to the trials that came from those injuries.
"Truth is, I'd be more worried if I had never been injured," writes Penix Jr. "We don't all come back the same. I can't speak for those that have never gone through anything. But I can speak on me. I've seen how deep my foundation is. I know the storms I'm prepared to weather. For most people that'd be the end of their story. But there's more to my story, and I own every page of it."
Grinding through that sort of rehab has forged a sort of mental relentlessness you don't find very often in prospects waiting to hear their names called at the end of April.
Sean Payton is looking for more than simply a man to throw a football. He needs a leader to take this Bronco by the reigns and lead. That's Michael Penix Jr.
If leadership isn't exactly your vibe, how about science? Penix Jr. passed all of his medical examinations at the NFL Combine back in February with flying colors. In fact, many experts believe no single player performed better overall at the Combine than the former Huskies' signal caller. He also hasn't missed a game in more than two years, "[putting] almost 2,000 plays on tape since my last injury," in his words.
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Back to that whole fear thing plaguing NFL management. The world of football decision-makers is both high-stress and short-lived. Every draft mistake, mismanaged contract or underperforming player could be your last if you're in charge. So in an effort at self-preservation, winning at its highest level isn't always what's being chased. The desire to stay afloat and stay employed can sometimes muddy the waters.
Then there are those like Rams GM Les Snead, who famously shouted "F them picks!" after Los Angeles mortgaged its draft capital to build a Super Bowl champion. John Elway's constant "Super Bowl or bust" mantra is partially why the Broncos are in this spot, but it's also what brought Peyton Manning to Denver and ultimately won Super Bowl 50. Elway was never worried about staying employed — all he cared about was winning that dang trophy.
Why does any of this matter as it relates to Michael Penix Jr.? Because the quickest way to derail a career is through injury, and if that happens to Penix Jr., there will be a whole lot of fans (and maybe colleagues, perhaps bosses) quick to let whoever drafts him know they should have seen it coming.
Forgive me, but that's a stupid way to live. By every metric, every number — every eye test, ear test, and smell test — Michael Penix Jr. is a bona fide star at the most important position in football just waiting to be given the keys to an NFL franchise. He's 23 years old with six years of college football experience under his belt — that's 48 games played (39-9 record) and 1,685 passes thrown (1,109 in the last two years of injury-free football). He's ready to step in and play, and more importantly, lead from day one.
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Not many NFL experts are "mocking" Penix Jr. to Denver, and ESPN's Dan Orlovsky tried to define why he doesn't see that fit.
"I think that's a massive dice roll," said Orlovsky. "The injury history has to be a part of his game, and I don't know if he's good enough with the catch-and-throw point guard stuff that Sean [Payton] likes to do. He's more of a long-range shooter."
We've already been through why I believe the injury situation to be more of a smokescreen than a true barrier, but Orlovsky's second point holds water.
We just watched what happens when a quarterback doesn't mesh well with Payton's offense — $85 million gets lit on fire and the QB in question gets jettisoned to Pittsburgh. But Penix Jr. is not Russell Wilson, and if he's a "long-range shooter," I'd absolutely take Steph Curry over John Stockton in the modern NBA.
Payton loathes the NFL group-think. He's taken to calling it a bus or train and pleads with reporters to "listen to it but don't get on." If everyone believes Bo Nix is going to end up as the Broncos quarterback of the future, if that's what the train is spewing, then perhaps Payton is keeping his true intentions coy. Perhaps that means there's hope in Denver.
If Michael Penix Jr. is not wearing blue and orange by the end of Thursday night, well, I hope my "I told you so" doesn't come at the expense of this Mile High mess up. And if he lands with the Las Vegas Raiders, God help us all.
The 2024 NFL Draft airs Thursday at 6 p.m. on Denver7.
