DENVER — NOAA scientists predict a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter — but for Colorado, the drought relief may be limited.
El Niño is a buildup of warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean that can bring wetter conditions to the Southwest and warmer weather to the North.
Kris Karnauskas, an associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU Boulder, says Colorado sits in an area where El Niño's impact is often less reliable.
"So the southern part of Colorado does reach into the part of the US that typically gets a little bit more moisture to the southwest, and to the northwest, it could be a little bit warmer. The problem is the headwaters are not in the south, so the impact on Colorado's water supply, for example, is not very robust," Karnauskas said.
Karnauskas said most of the impacts will be seen on the West Coast, with potential for flooding and landslides if this El Niño is as strong as predicted.
The impacts could be felt around the world.
"It has impacts on vector-borne diseases like dengue, malaria in Africa," Karnauskas said. "The Galapagos penguins really take a hit to their food supply during El Niño events because the water warms up so much."
Over the next few weeks, scientists will get even clearer data about what to expect this winter and the severity of the possible El Niño event.
◼️ Previous coverage:
- Colorado's drought isn't over: What a record-bad winter means for rivers, agriculture and wildfire risk
- ‘Super’ El Niño could shape global weather, bring record heat
- Record-breaking El Niño possible, bringing extreme weather, experts warn
This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.
