DENVER — Severe weather will make a comeback across the Denver area late Monday afternoon through the overnight hours of Tuesday, bringing with it the potential for hail and damaging winds in parts of the metro, forecasters with the National Weather Service in Boulder said Monday.
Scattered showers and storms have already begun over the high country, and those are expected to drift onto the I-25 Corridor from Denver up to Fort Collins and the northeastern plains starting Monday afternoon through the evening and into early Tuesday morning.
The first round of storms should start after about 2 or 3 p.m. over southwestern Colorado and move up to the central mountains a few hours later, according to Denver7 chief meteorologist Lisa Hidalgo, who said those storms will then start to pick up some steam as we get into the late afternoon hours before a cold front moves in between 5 and 8 p.m., bringing locally heavy rainfall for the remainder of the night and into the early hours of Tuesday.
“We’re going to see that risk for some larger hail, damaging winds, potentially some isolated tornadoes, especially over the northeastern corner of the state,” where they will turn pretty strong by early evening, Hidalgo said.
The greatest risk for severe storms would be roughly east of line from Cheyenne in southeast Wyoming to Fort Morgan to Akron in the northeastern plains of Colorado, according to the NWS.
A severe thunderstorm watch is already in effect for several counties along the eastern plains including Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Otero, Prowers, and Yuma through 10 p.m.
Weather forecasters said there will “almost certainly” be some overlap between the first round of storms and the more widespread storm activity once the cold front settles in later in the evening, which could bring locally heavy rainfall to parts of the metro late Monday afternoon and evening.
Though weather models are still inconsistent, weather service officials with the NWS said the heaviest precipitation is still forecast to fall over the foothills and the southern half of the Denver metro, with lower totals to the north and east.
Gusty winds up to and over 45 mph will be the main threat once the storms settle in, forecasters said, so a brief severe/near severe storm with marginal hail and wind cannot be ruled out along the Denver metro.
Most areas near and east of the Front Range have a high chance of picking up at least half-an-inch of rain, with some spots potentially seeing over an inch of precipitation, Hidalgo said, though any slower moving storms Monday afternoon could lead to locally higher totals that could drop up to 2 inches of rainfall.
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There is also the risk of a training storm, which is when multiple storms or showers develop and move over the same area one after the other with short or little-to-no breaks in between. Should that happen, flash flooding could become an issue, especially in burn scar areas or across parts of the northeastern plains, Higaldo said.
In their forecast discussion, weather service officials said that, as of early Monday morning, “only the upper Colorado River is under enough threat of rises for minor flooding, and a Flood Watch remains in effect for a small section above Grand Lake Monday evening through Tuesday.
“Nonetheless, we think most areas along/east of the Front Range have a high probability (>70% chance) of greater than 0.50" of rain, and a 40% chance of greater than 1",” forecasters wrote. “Those probabilities would be slightly lower/higher the farther north/south one progresses, respectively.”
The storms will continue into the overnight hours of Tuesday with some moderate to heavy rainfall, though their intensity will decrease by Tuesday morning, Hidalgo said, adding we’re still going to see the chance for a few thunderstorms throughout the afternoon on Tuesday.
Temperatures will also drop down into the 40s to low 50s early Tuesday morning, Hidalgo said, before a gradual warming trend starts to take shape by Wednesday into late into the week.
That won’t mean the chance for another round of afternoon storms or scattered showers is over, as the rainfall forecast shows a chance of some afternoon storms pretty much every day this week.
“Things will start to dry out and warm up by the end of the week, but even on Friday, we’re still tracking the chance for a few storms,” Hidalgo said.
The high Monday will reach 84 degrees and will drop down to a high of about 58 on Tuesday and 67 on Wednesday, with highs returning to the seasonal normal by Thursday and Friday.
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