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CSU researchers predict 'extremely active' hurricane season in 2024

They say they have a "higher-than-normal" confidence in this outlook.
Posted at 10:16 AM, Apr 04, 2024
and last updated 2024-04-04 14:25:37-04

Researchers at Colorado State University have just released their 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook, and they're predicting what's being called "an extremely active season."

The team of Colorado researchers cites record warm tropical, and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, as the primary factor for their predictions.

And they say they have a "higher-than-normal" confidence in this outlook.

"The important thing to remember in all of this, is that you never know where a hurricane is going to hit," Alexander DesRosiers, co-author of CSU'S 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Forecast, said. "It doesn't in a nutshell, totally matter how active the hurricane season is going to be. All that matters is that you prepare if you live in a hurricane prone area."

The CSU Tropical Weather and Climate Team is predicting 23 named storms during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs from June first through November 30. Of those 23 forecasted storms, 11 are predicted to become hurricanes. The outlook is also calling for five major hurricanes. A major hurricane includes Category 3, 4, and 5 storms, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

CSU's team is is also forecasting a "well-above normal" probability for major hurricanes, making landfall along the Continental U.S. Coastline, and in the Caribbean. This is how they broke down chances of landfall, with the 140-year average in parentheses:

  • 62% for the entire U.S. coastline (140-year average is 43%)
  • 34% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (21%)
  • 42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (27%)
  • 66% for the Caribbean (47%)

DesRosiers says even people all over the U.S., and even those in landlocked states like Colorado, should pay attention.
"When we have bad hurricanes, we call them national disasters," DesRosiers said. "They might affect family or loved ones who live in hurricane prone areas, they can affect the supply chain, they can affect availability of gasoline, because there's so much oil that's extracted from the Gulf of Mexico, there's a number of impacts that can really come home and start to impact people all over the country."

DesRosiers has previously explained to Denver7 that for weather to be considered bad, air needs to go up.

"And right here in Colorado, we have the Rocky Mountains. And it's hard for wind to flow straight through them, so it's forced up," he added. "And that's a really big trigger mechanism for a lot of the severe weather that we have in the U.S."

This is the 41st year that the CSU Hurricane Research Team has issued an Atlantic Basin seasonal forecast. Researchers say this forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season, and is not an exact measure.
The team is expecting to issue forecast updates on June 11th, July 9th, and August 6th.

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