The world will be watching as Faith Kipyegon tries to become the first woman to run a sub-4-minute mile on Thursday, but one researcher at the University of Colorado examined this possibility for about two years.
Nike is hosting the event at Stade Charléty in Paris. As of Thursday morning, Nike is scheduled to start streaming the event at 11:15 a.m. MT, but that could change as weather is one of the obstacles top of mind. Faith holds the record for best female mile time at 4:07.64, set in 2023. Rodger Kram, an associate professor emeritus in the Department of Integrative Physiology at the University of Colorado, is one of four authors who published a study in February explaining how they believe Faith can become the first woman to break four minutes in the mile.
"We find that she could feasibly run ~3:59.37 with two teams of female pacers (one 1.2 m in front and one 1.2 m in the back) who change out at 800 m," part of the conclusion to their study reads. "However, it should be noted that there is considerable variability among the drafting effectiveness values reported in the literature. Hopefully, Ms Kipyegon can test our prediction on the track."
It isn't clear exactly what tactics will be used on the track in Paris on Thursday, but Kram explained that the type of track in Paris is an ideal start.
"Let's start from the ground up," Kram said when breaking down what elements are in play to make history. "You want to run on a good track, a bouncy track, a track, if nothing else, that the athlete has confidence in... So she knows that, she loves that track."
Kram then pointed to the shoes, one of the most important pieces of equipment.
"She is going to wear some custom shoes made specifically for her feet," Kram added. "The best running shoes probably are shoes that you aren't even aware of. They just work naturally... but they're still within the rules of the governing body of Track and Field."
Nike also praising Faith will be wearing a "one-of-one" sports bra made from material known as Nike FlyWeb.
"She's going to have a special suit that's aerodynamic," Kram said. "There's not much publicly known about that, but it has little protrusions on it. They call them arrow nodes. It's a bit like you took a porcupine and gave them a really close haircut... the same principle as why golf balls have dimples, so it prevents air from sticking. It disrupts the air flow a little bit, and it reduces the air drag."
But Kram said the key to speed comes from drafting.
"Having a pacer in front is pretty obvious, that the runner pushes air to the side so that it doesn't bounce off of the designated runner," Kram explained. "In this case, Kipyegon having a runner behind, what it does is it essentially makes the three runners, one in front, Faith, and the runner behind, into a sort of a long, slender, single object, like a streamlined submarine or something like that. And so it prevents the air from forming a negative pressure right behind her back. Instead, the guy or gal who's running behind her has to deal with that air... but that air ideally goes right past all three of the runners."
For anyone who runs on a treadmill, Kram explained that air resistance for a woman Kipyegon's size, running at 15 miles per hour, is similar to inclining your treadmill by about 2%.
"That's not nothing.... that's impressive, that's significant," Kram said of the air resistance without drafting. "The other way to think about it is, if you took your treadmill and you inclined it down 2% that's what trying to accomplish on Thursday."
Kram did have some concerns with the forecast on Thursday in Paris. He said that as of Wednesday night, he personally would have made the decision to move the attempt to Friday when less wind is expected. Kram's number one concern is the pacers tangling up with her near the start.
Kram wanted said no federal funding or university funds were used in this research.
"We're just curious track fans," Kram said with a smile. "We're nerds, we're track nerds. And that's why we did it in our free time. We were not using up taxpayer dollars in any way on this."
Roger Bannister was the first person to record a sub-four-minute mile, according to Guiness World Records. Bannister also utilized pacers in 1954.
