New 2018 House model shows pickups for Democrats, a possible challenge for Mike Coffman

Posted at 5:04 PM, Oct 16, 2017
and last updated 2017-10-16 19:04:03-04

DENVER – New modeling for 2018 shows Democrats have a better chance than they did in recent weeks of picking up some seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, and that there might be a chance a Democrat knocks off Republican Mike Coffman in Colorado’s 6th Congressional District.

Decision Desk HQ put out a new model Monday for the 2018 House midterms, which forecasts that Democrats will end up with 208 seats in the House, up from 194 currently in the House.

Most of its forecasts for Colorado aren’t much of a surprise, as incumbents are expected to remain in their seats, lest they be ousted in a primary by a challenger from their own party.

But the 6th Congressional District, which Coffman is currently representing for the sixth time, might be in play, according to the models.

They show that Democrats have a 60.7 percent win probability in the district and that Democrats will take 52 percent of the vote.

That would in theory bode well for the Democrats in the field, which currently include Jason Crow, Levi Tillemann and David Aarestad, who are trying to unseat the Republican Coffman in a district that Hillary Clinton drew 55 percent of the vote in last year.

But the district was also considered as being “in play” for Democrats last year, when Coffman defeated Democratic challenger Morgan Carroll 50.9 percent to 42.6 percent.

Some conservatives scoffed at the idea that Coffman might be an early underdog Monday, seeing as how Coffman hasn’t been seriously-challenged since 2012, when he narrowly defeated Joe Miklosi.

“[Democrats] should sue Decision Desk HQ & others for tricking them into spending so much [money] in #CO06 every cycle,” said Americans For Prosperity Senior Director of Issue Education Michael Fields.

But the 6th was the only 2018 Colorado district Decision Desk said was moderately in play in Monday’s release.

According to their analysis, Rep. Diana DeGette (D) has a 100 percent chance of winning re-election; a Democrat is 98.5 percent-likely to win the 2nd district that Jared Polis currently holds; and Republicans have a 73.5-percent chance to win the 3rd district where Scott Tipton is trying to get re-elected.

Republicans have a 94.2 percent chance to hold Rep. Ken Buck’s 4th district seat, and a slightly-better chance of holding the 5th Congressional District that Doug Lamborn currently represents.

Rep. Ed Perlmutter has a 93-percent chance of holding onto Colorado’s 7th Congressional District, according to Decision Desk.

The new forecasts come on the last day that candidates have to report their quarterly earnings to the Federal Election Commission. The filings are due by the end of the day, and the subsequent reports should provide more insight into who is challenging whom in the various districts ahead of next spring’s primaries and caucuses.