DENVER — No matter which side of the political aisle you’re on, there’s a lot at stake in the November election. Republicans are hoping for major gains on a state and federal level with things like gas prices, crime, and inflation at the top of voters’ minds.
While much of the national attention is focused on the balance of power in the U.S. Congress, control of the Colorado legislature is also at stake.
In the House, all 65 seats are up for reelection. However, Democrats hold a 17-seat advantage in the chamber that Republicans admit would be hard to overcome in order to take control.
For months, their real focus has been on the state Senate, where Republicans need to flip only a handful of seats to take control.
“Flipping one of the chambers will make it a completely different legislative session,” said Larua Carno and Republican political media strategist.
Even if Republicans lose the House and governor’s race, winning back the Senate could mark a major change to the pace of the state legislature, where Democrats have held the trifecta (meaning the House, Senate and Governor’s Mansion) since 2018 and have been able to pass more progressive policies.
“If Republicans can pull off control of the state Senate, they can block a lot of Democratic initiatives and really at least keep the status quo as opposed to moving more towards Democratic policies,” said Robert Preuhs, a professor and the chair of the political science department at Metropolitan State University of Denver.
Currently, Democrats control 21 seats in the Senate while Republicans hold 14 seats. That Democratic advantage was made slightly more pronounced last month when the Senate’s most moderate Republican announced he was switching political affiliations to democrat over the January 6 insurrection and climate crisis.
This year, 17 Senate seats are up for reelection. Of those, Democratic candidates are strongly favored to win four seats while Republicans are strongly favored to win six, leaving both parties scrambling over just seven seats.
Those seven districts are considered to be the most competitive and will determine which party holds control of the Senate, but how competitive they are depends on who you ask. Here’s a look at those seven districts:
Senate District 3
This district covers Pueblo and Colorado City among other areas in the South. The district is currently represented by Democratic Sen. Nick Hinrichsen, who was appointed to the seat earlier this year after former Senate president Leroy Garcia accepted a job at the pentagon.
For Hinrichsen, this will be the first chance for voters rather than a committee to determine whether they want him to represent their area.
Hinrichsen is running against Republican Stephen Varela, a veteran and community activist who serves on the Pueblo Community Planning Commission as well as the board of the Pueblo Zoo.
Data from the independent redistricting commission that redrew the Senate boundaries gives a 5-point advantage to Democrats in this seat.
According to September 19 financial filings, Hinrichsen has raised a total of $92,000 while Varela has raised $97,000.
Senate District 8
This district covers much of the Northwestern quarter of the state including Moffat, Rio Blanco, Routt, Jackson, Grand, Gilpin, Clear Creek, Summit, Eagle and Garfield counties.
It was represented by Democratic Sen. Kerry Donovan, who was term-limited.
Democratic Rep. Dylan Roberts is running against Matt Solomon, who has spent more than two decades in public service working as a paramedic, deputy coroner and member of the Eagle town council.
Data from the independent redistricting commission gave Democrats a 6.6-point advantage in this district.
“That race is almost a toss-up. Sen. Donovan held it for a long time, but she may have uniquely been able to hold that and in a red wave election that may not hold,” Preuhs said.
This race is shaping up to be one of the most expensive in the Senate; Solomon has raised $94,000 as of Monday while Roberts has raised $246,000. It’s also one of the races that most readily comes to mind for both political parties as being competitive.
Senate District 11
This district covers the Southeastern portion of Colorado Springs and Stratmoor. Republican Sen. Dennis Hisey (who currently represents District 2 but because of redistricting was drawn into this area) is competing against Democratic Rep. Tony Exum for this seat.
The independent redistricting commission shows Democrats have a roughly 2-point advantage in this seat. However, Preuhs believes it’s the Republicans who may win this one.
“That one I think is maybe less likely to switch. You have a Republican incumbent and really fairly well known in terms of name recognition, and that's going to be tough to get over,” Preuhs said.
As of Monday’s financial filings, Hisey has raised around $120,000 while Exum has raised roughly $92,500.
Senate District 15
This district covers parts of Northern Colorado including parts of Boulder as well as Larimer County, Loveland and Estes Park.
Republican Sen. Robert Woodward is the incumbent in this seat, though with redistricting the lines are a bit different. He’s running against Democratic candidate Janice Marchman for the seat. Marchman is a mother of two, a teacher, and the former vice president of the Thompson School Board.
The independent redistricting commission put the competitiveness of this district at a dead tie.
In terms of spending, Woodward has largely outraised his opponent as of Monday with $254,000 in total contributions while Marchman has raised a total of $111,000.
Senate District 20
This district represents areas like Genesee, Kittridge and Evergreen. Democratic Rep. Lisa Cutter is running against Republican Tim Walsh for this seat. Walsh is a military veteran who graduated from West Point and is a civil engineer.
The independent commission data shows Democrats have a roughly 7-point advantage in this race.
As of Monday, Cutter had raised $143,000 in total contributions while Walsh had raised $127,000 and contributed $420,000 in loans.
Senate District 24
This district represents areas like Thornton, Northglenn and Federal Heights north to E. 160th Ave.
Democratic Rep. Kyle Mullica is taking on Republican Courtney Potter in this race. Potter is a member of the Adams 12 School Board, the wife of a Thornton police officer and a mother of three.
The independent redistricting commission data shows this district leans democrat by about 9 points.
This is another race with a lot of money coming in. While Potter has raised $47,000 in total contributions as of Monday, Mullica has raised $177,000.
Senate District 27
This district represents parts of Centennial, Aurora and Foxfield south of Denver.
Democratic Rep. Tom Sullivan is vying for the seat against Tom Kim, a businessman and former lawyer who is the grandson of Korean immigrants.
The independent redistricting commission data shows a nearly 5-point Democratic advantage in the district.
According to Monday’s financial filings, Sullivan has raised a total of $124,000 while Kim has raised roughly $109,000.
Sullivan first ran for the legislature after his son Alex was killed in the Aurora theater shooting. He has been a staunch gun control voice in the legislature since being elected. However, Preuhs says that message might not be enough.
“It's not clear that the gun control messaging is overcoming kind of anti-crime, economy issues that Republicans are going to try to rely on,” he said.
Money talks
Between the seven districts, Republican candidates have managed to raise roughly $848,000 in all while Democratic candidates have raised a combined $985,500.
“Your money goes a lot further in a state legislative race. And so, you know, My money is on flipping the state Senate,” Carno said.
None of this includes the millions that independent committees have raised for these raises to fill the airwaves and mailboxes with advertising for their candidates in the final push before the election.
“The spending is remarkable this year. I mean, I think we are already setting records,” Fenberg said. “There are folks that are giving that are playing at a level that we have never heard of before.”
Republicans say the economy, inflation and public safety are at stake in the midterm election with the state Senate. Democrats say things like education funding and abortion rights are also at stake depending on which party takes control.
Preuhs isn’t optimistic that Republicans will be able to win enough of the competitive races to take over the Senate. However, a recall attempt against Priola could mean Republicans need to win one fewer seat this election to take control of the chamber.
These races will ultimately come down to voter turnout and which party is able to garner enough enthusiasm to get their voters to cast a ballot.
