Many Americans are feeling overwhelmed by all the recent changes in the stock market. It can be a lot to sort through and understand. So, Denver7 asked Financial Adviser Bruce Allen, from Bruce G. Allen Investments LLC, for advice on the key things to know.
- Inflation reports, which are released monthly. The most recent one was released last week.
- Reports from the Federal Reserve, which are released quarterly.
- Dramatic stock market declines, which happened earlier this month, after President Donald Trump announced new sweeping tariffs.
Allen said these three factors will give you the most basic picture of how our economy is doing and how the average person might feel the impact.
"We might see incomes declining across the country. We might see prices rising," Allen said. "It may be a little more difficult to live our lives as we go into this environment.
Allen said right now, he's hearing a lot of anxiety about the economy. But it's important to keep looking forward.
"What I'm most interested in in watching for is how is there going to be a holistic resolution to this current crisis? And no one knows when that's going to happen," Allen said.
He pointed to two past financial crises as examples of resolutions.
"When COVID unfolded in 2020, from March of 2020 to November 9 we were all very uncertain about when this crisis would end," Allen remembered. "For those of us watching the markets so many people felt a sense of relief about the vaccine announcement on November 9. For many investors, that was the end of the crisis."
But Allen said, it's not always so simple. For example, it took longer for the markets to bounce back after the financial crisis in 2008.
"One of the big causes of the Great Financial Crisis was the way that banks had to account on their balance sheets for assets," Allen explained. "Once democrats and republicans got together and convinced the Financial Accounting Standards Board to remove mark to market accounting, that crisis was over. It took a while for things to heal, but that was one of the pivotal moments where after that, we could move forward and start healing as a nation and as the economy."
Allen said, the current situation the resolution will look different too.
"The depth of these and the length of these can vary from recession to recession," Allen said.
The U.S. is not officially in a recession, but some big banks predict a recession is coming. This month, JPMorgan increased its prediction for the likelihood of a recession from 40% to 60% chance in the next year. Last week, Goldman Sachs increased its recession prediction to 65%, then quickly reverted to 45% after President Trump temporarily scaled back tariffs against dozens of countries.
Allen said there are four factors to consider when looking at whether the U.S. will enter a recession.
- "Is the jobs market getting better or worse?"
- "Are people who are working making more money or less money after inflation?"
- "Are people spending more after inflation or less after inflation?"
- "Are businesses thriving or are they suffering?"
Allen said each person's financial situation is different, so he recommended talking with a financial adviser, tax professional or 401K adviser for your own personal savings.
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