Colorado’s climate could help keep new cases of COVID-19 down through the summer, but meteorological advantages aren’t going to be enough if people return to normal life while the virus is still circulating widely, according to researchers projecting cases for the next three months.
The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia’s PolicyLab projected how many new coronavirus cases 10 Colorado counties — nine along the Front Range, plus Eagle County — might see this summer, depending on what their residents decide to do.
Dr. David Rubin, a pediatrician and director of the PolicyLab, said cases in Colorado Springs have fallen far enough that El Paso County officials might be able to safely loosen more rules than their counterparts could in the Denver area, which has a higher level of ongoing transmission.
“I think a place like Colorado Springs will be relatively resilient,” he said. “Denver’s a little trickier.”
Denver County currently has 658 confirmed cases per 100,000 people. If Denver maintained the level of social distancing it had under the stay-at-home order, it would be projected to have as few new cases as eight per day in mid-August. In the least-restricted scenario modeled, it could see more than 500 new cases each day by that time.